After reaching a high of 85.6 million barrels (13,610,000 m In terms of oil use, transportation is the largest sector and the one that has seen the largest growth in demand in recent decades.This growth has largely come from new demand for personal-use vehicles powered by internal combustion engines.In a 2006 analysis of Hubbert theory, it was noted that uncertainty in real world oil production amounts and confusion in definitions increases the uncertainty in general of production predictions.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated that gasoline usage in the United States may have peaked in 2007, in part because of increasing interest in and mandates for use of biofuels and energy efficiency.
As countries develop, industry and higher living standards drive up energy use, oil usage being a major component.
the peak of production will soon be passed, possibly within 3 years." In 1953, Eugene Ayers, a researcher for Gulf Oil, projected that if US ultimate recoverable oil reserves were 100 billion barrels, then production in the US would peak no later than 1960.
If ultimate recoverable were to be as high as 200 billion barrels, which he warned was wishful thinking, US peak production would come no later than 1970.
He wrote: "But if the curve is made to look reasonable, it is quite possible to adapt mathematical expressions to it and to determine, in this way, the peak dates corresponding to various ultimate recoverable reserve numbers" Hubbert used a semi-logistical curved model (sometimes incorrectly compared to a normal distribution).
He assumed the production rate of a limited resource would follow a roughly symmetrical distribution.
Thriving economies, such as China and India, are quickly becoming large oil consumers.
Some analysts argue that the cost of oil has a profound effect on economic growth due to its pivotal role in the extraction of resources and the processing, manufacturing, and transportation of goods.
Some observers, such as petroleum industry experts Kenneth S.
Deffeyes and Matthew Simmons, predict negative global economy implications following a post-peak production decline and subsequent oil price increase because of the high dependence of most modern industrial transport, agricultural, and industrial systems on the low cost and high availability of oil.
As a result, different oil forecasting studies have included different classes of liquid fuels.